1. Introduction
- Concept Definition: People tend to accept arguments that align with their beliefs while rejecting counterarguments to their prior knowledge. It is closely related to confirmation bias. In other words, people resist things they did‘’t experienced before.
- Concept Founder: Believe Bias is an old discovery and the initial founder is unknown.
- Concept Benefit: Understand and judge if you are a victim of belief bias. Be able to identify when to rely on your belief and when not to trust it.
2. How To Demonstrate It?
- An example of an invalid syllogism is:
- All teenage girls are ambitious.
- Teenage girls study hard.
- Therefore, girls study hard because they are ambitious.
- Typically, a majority of test subjects in studies incorrectly identify this syllogism as one in which the conclusion follows from the premises.
- It might be true in the real world that a) girls study and b) this is because they are ambitious.
- However, this argument is a fallacy, because the conclusion is not supported by its premises.
- The validity of an argument is independent of the truth of its conclusion: there are valid arguments for false conclusions and invalid arguments for true conclusions.
3. Where Can It Be Applied?
- Fortune Cookies: Fortune cookies are often served at Chinese restaurants. But they are actually invented in Japan and almost never eaten in China. Chinese restaurants in western countries still use them because people had already made experienced that these cookies are from China.
- Media Industry: The movie industry leverages this Belief Bias to show you things that everybody believes are true, instead of showing the facts. For example, the shark fin is a symbol of danger due to the popularity of the movies like Jaw and white shark. But in reality, only a few people are attacked by a shark and it is more likely to die from the flu than from the shark.
- Marketing Ads: Ads could exploit the Belief Bias by showing people what they know or think is plausible for a good product.
4. Why Does It Exist?
- Instinct System Decided: The dual process theory argues, that people have 2 reasoning systems working simultaneously when making a decision. The instinct-based system gives quick answers based on know experience. The logic-based system gives slow answers based on reasoning and thinking. People who have a dominant instinct system might encounter Belief Bias more often. The reflex system might be useful in quick decision situations like sports and physical activities, while the analytical system is good for strategic decision situations such as writing and cognitive activities. The instinct system uses simple heuristics or stereotypes to judge if a piece of information is plausible or not. It does not fully evaluate the information in depth because it is designed for making fast decisions.
- Time Pressure: The fewer time people have to reason, the more people will rely on their existing knowledge. The more time people have, the more logical conclusions can be made because logic requires processing time. The Belief Bias for logical decisions happens if there is not enough time for analytical thinking and our brain can only use existing knowledge to decide.
- Survivorship Bias: Your experience might be correct, but it might be already biased the moment you experienced it. For example, Youtube videos about successful start-up entrepreneurs give you the impression that there are many of them. You might be thinking creating a start-up might be easy. But this experience itself is biased because non-successful companies are not popular on youtube, and all Videos you consumed are only about a small fraction of all start-up companies.
5. How Do I Benefit From It?
- Do: Identify if this is a reflex situation or if there is enough time to think for a decision. Try to think from a third-person perspective and analyze the situation objectively. When hearing an argument that you never heard before, try to let it sink for a while first. Allow your time to fully analyze the situation before making a judgment. Use the first principle to question the matter from the root.
- Don‘t: Do not blindly trust your current knowledge, question it, and go beyond it. Don’t let any of your decision systems take full dominance over you, balance them, and let your decision style adapt to the environment. Do not always believe in your past experience, because the experience itself might be biased when you received it.